Closely tied to US bond yields, because the Bank of Japan keeps its own rates low. The yen also tends to strengthen when markets get nervous.
Where USD/JPY closed and how far it's moved over different timeframes.
| 20-day average | 156.169 |
| 50-day average | 158.155 |
| 200-day average | 158.487 |
Price is below its 50-day average, and the 50-day is below the 200-day. That's the textbook definition of a downtrend. In the shorter term, price is above its 20-day average. We tested whether this label predicts anything: on its own, it hasn't →
USD/JPY is 65% of the way from its 12-month low to its 12-month high. The average daily range of about 147 pips is a useful guide when sizing a stop: anything much tighter is likely to get caught by normal daily noise.
Levels many traders watch. They're reference points, not predictions: price respects some and slices through others. We tested whether pivots hold more often than random levels: they don't →
| Previous high | 158.441 |
| Previous close | 157.558 |
| Previous low | 157.330 |
| Pivot R1 | 158.223 |
| Daily pivot | 157.776 |
| Pivot S1 | 157.112 |
| This week's open | 157.445 |
The gap between the two central banks' rates is one of the biggest long-term drivers of any currency pair.
| Fed (USD) | 3.875% · hiking |
| BoJ (JPY) | 1.25% · hiking |
| Rate gap (USD minus JPY) | +2.62% |
USD pays 2.62% more. In theory, being long USD/JPY earns that gap overnight, and the other way round pays it. What your broker actually credits or charges will be less generous. All central bank rates →
Two-year government bond yields show what markets expect central banks to do over the next couple of years. Traders compare the two countries' yields as a guide to where money is being drawn.
| USD 2-year yield | 4.78% · +0.39 in a month (1 Oct) |
| JPY 2-year yield | 1.94% · +0.14 in a month (1 Oct) |
| Gap (USD minus JPY) | +2.84 points · +0.25 in a month |
| USD/JPY over the last month | −0.69% |
■ Yield gap, USD minus JPY, in points (left scale) ■ USD/JPY (right scale). Weekly, last two years. The two lines use different scales, so how closely they appear to track depends on how the axes are drawn. The correlations below are the fair test.
Read the gap as an explanation of moves that have already happened, not a forecast of the next one. Across 264 months since 2004, the change in the USD/JPY yield gap and the pair's move had a correlation of +0.54 in the same month and +0.05 in the month after. Over the last month the gap and USD/JPY moved in opposite directions. See the full test → · How economic data moves currencies →
What the big speculators hold in JPY futures, from the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report.
| Net position (JPY futures) | +55,440 contracts |
| Change on the week | −16,542 |
| Share of open interest | +15.4% |
| Where that sits over 3 years | 74th percentile |
Large speculators (hedge funds and other big traders) as of Tue 29 Sep. Because USD/JPY is quoted with the dollar first, speculators being net long JPY means they're leaning short USD/JPY. COT reports →
Scheduled data and speeches for USD and JPY from the Satdish economic calendar.