A 'risk' currency. Tends to follow global growth, commodity prices and China, as well as the RBA.
Where AUD/USD closed and how far it's moved over different timeframes.
| 20-day average | 0.70978 |
| 50-day average | 0.70925 |
| 200-day average | 0.70291 |
The averages don't line up in one direction, so there's no clean trend by this measure. Mixed conditions often mean choppier price action. In the shorter term, price is below its 20-day average. We tested whether this label predicts anything: on its own, it hasn't →
AUD/USD is 63% of the way from its 12-month low to its 12-month high. The average daily range of about 49 pips is a useful guide when sizing a stop: anything much tighter is likely to get caught by normal daily noise.
Levels many traders watch. They're reference points, not predictions: price respects some and slices through others. We tested whether pivots hold more often than random levels: they don't →
| Previous high | 0.69580 |
| Previous close | 0.69457 |
| Previous low | 0.69052 |
| Pivot R1 | 0.69674 |
| Daily pivot | 0.69363 |
| Pivot S1 | 0.69146 |
| This week's open | 0.70091 |
The gap between the two central banks' rates is one of the biggest long-term drivers of any currency pair.
| RBA (AUD) | 4.35% · on hold |
| Fed (USD) | 3.875% · hiking |
| Rate gap (AUD minus USD) | +0.47% |
AUD pays 0.47% more. In theory, being long AUD/USD earns that gap overnight, and the other way round pays it. What your broker actually credits or charges will be less generous. All central bank rates →
Two-year government bond yields show what markets expect central banks to do over the next couple of years. Traders compare the two countries' yields as a guide to where money is being drawn.
| AUD 2-year yield | 4.94% · +0.27 in a month (30 Sep) |
| USD 2-year yield | 4.78% · +0.39 in a month (1 Oct) |
| Gap (AUD minus USD) | +0.16 points · −0.12 in a month |
| AUD/USD over the last month | −2.88% |
■ Yield gap, AUD minus USD, in points (left scale) ■ AUD/USD (right scale). Weekly, last two years. The two lines use different scales, so how closely they appear to track depends on how the axes are drawn. The correlations below are the fair test.
Read the gap as an explanation of moves that have already happened, not a forecast of the next one. Across 156 months since 2013, the change in the AUD/USD yield gap and the pair's move had a correlation of +0.28 in the same month and +0.01 in the month after. Over the last month the gap and AUD/USD moved the same way. See the full test → · How economic data moves currencies →
Iron ore is Australia's largest export and China buys most of it, so its price feeds straight into the Aussie dollar. When iron ore rises, AUD/USD tends to find support; when it falls, AUD/USD tends to weigh. It is a lean on direction, not a signal.
Free embedded charts can't show iron ore futures, so this is Fortescue (ASX: FMG), a miner that earns almost all of its revenue from iron ore. It tracks the iron ore price closely but also reflects company news and the share market, so treat it as a stand-in. Open the iron ore futures chart on TradingView →
The link comes and goes. Quick check: over the last 20 daily candles, did AUD/USD move the same way as this chart on at least 12 of them? If not, ignore it for now.
What the big speculators hold in AUD futures, from the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report.
| Net position (AUD futures) | −63,239 contracts |
| Change on the week | −16,425 |
| Share of open interest | -20.4% |
| Where that sits over 3 years | 38th percentile |
Large speculators (hedge funds and other big traders) as of Tue 29 Sep. Speculators being net short AUD lines up with being short AUD/USD. COT reports →
Scheduled data and speeches for AUD and USD from the Satdish economic calendar.