NQ, ES, Gold & Crude — Week of 4 May 2026

The Setup

We're now ten weeks into the US–Iran war, and this week has been, by some distance, the most volatile of the entire conflict. Every single session was driven by one of two narratives: peace memo hopes, or renewed clashes in the Strait of Hormuz. The headlines whipsawed traders all week, and the price action reflected that.

Here's the brief recap before we get into the levels:

Four months ago, a week like this would have been the story of the year. Right now it's just Tuesday to Friday.

NQ — New All-Time Highs, Powered by Tech Earnings

NQ printed fresh all-time highs this week, trading in the 28,800–28,870 area as I write this on Friday morning. The index is up roughly 4% since the war began at the end of February — genuinely remarkable when you consider what's gone on geopolitically.

What drove it this week was earnings, plain and simple:

• Datadog +30% on a blowout quarter
• AMD +18.6% beating profit and revenue forecasts
• Super Micro Computer +24.5% on stronger-than-expected results
• NVIDIA +5.7% — given its size, the single biggest contributor to the S&P's advance
• Apple lifted on Wednesday after raising forward guidance

The takeaway? Tech earnings are still carrying the index. As long as the AI capex story keeps printing, the path of least resistance is up.

If we get a deal over the weekend and the Strait reopens, expect a gap higher Sunday night. If Tehran rejects the memo, expect 28,150 to be tested quickly.

ES — The First Close Above 7,300

The S&P 500 made history on Tuesday with its first ever close above 7,300, and held onto it all week. The Dow tacked on 600 points in the same session — a proper risk-on move.

A few numbers worth absorbing:

• ES is up 13% from its end-March low
• Up 4.2% since the Iran war began (28 February)
• Seven new all-time highs year-to-date, four of them since the conflict started

That last one is the one that matters. Equities have decided that the war, the Strait blockade, and the inflation knock-on are all manageable. As long as earnings keep beating and the Fed isn't forced to hike, the bid is there.

Watch how ES behaves on any pullback into 7,300. A clean retest and bounce confirms the breakout. A swift rejection back below would suggest the move was a peace-deal headline fade.

Gold — The $200 Rebound off $4,500

Gold was the most interesting chart of the week. On Monday it retested $4,500 — a level we flagged a fortnight ago as the line in the sand for the bull trend. It held, sharply, and gold has rallied for three straight sessions to trade above $4,730 as of Friday morning London time.

That's a $200+ rally in 72 hours, driven by:

• A weaker dollar (three-month lows)
• Falling Treasury yields
• Easing US–Iran tensions on Wednesday
• Fresh haven demand on Friday's renewed clashes

Institutions remain bullish. ING and others are still calling for $5,200 by year-end. The technical setup says the same: $4,500 held as a double bottom, and the next test is $4,800.

Today's NFP at 13:30 London time will be a major event for gold. A weak number sends it through $4,800. A strong number — one that pushes the dollar higher and keeps the Fed firmly on hold — caps it back at $4,700.

Crude — The Whipsaw

If you traded crude this week and finished green, you earned every penny. The week-on-week change in WTI is down about 6%, which doesn't begin to capture what happened in between.

The path:

• Monday: WTI closed at $106.42 (+4.4%), Brent at $114.40 — the 2026 high
• Tuesday: WTI –4% to $102.27, Brent to $109.87 as the ceasefire held
• Wednesday: WTI collapsed nearly 8% as the peace memo leaked
• Thursday: WTI traded as low as $88.66 — a 15.5% drop from Monday's close
• Friday: Renewed clashes pushed WTI back above $96, Brent above $101

That's an 18% peak-to-trough range in four trading sessions. For context, the IEA is still warning that the war is disrupting roughly 14 million barrels per day of global supply, and even if the Strait reopens, insurers are reluctant to underwrite tankers crossing it. Recovery, when it comes, will be gradual.

This is not a chart to trade on conviction. It's a chart to trade with tight stops and small size — or to leave alone entirely. Headline risk is everything right now.

What to Watch Next Week

• Iran's response to the US memo — expected via Pakistani intermediaries within 48–72 hours. This is the binary event of the week.
• Today's NFP (Friday 8 May) — drives the dollar, which drives gold and risk assets.
• Fed speakers — markets are pricing a 20% chance of a rate hike by year-end. Any commentary on that probability moves bonds and the dollar.
• Big tech earnings continuation — keeps the NQ bid alive, or doesn't.
• OPEC+ commentary — silence so far on filling the Hormuz gap. That'll change.

The Trader's Takeaway

Weeks like this are when discipline matters most. There's a temptation to chase every headline — to short oil on the peace memo, long it on the renewed clashes, buy NQ at the highs because the earnings are good, buy gold because the dollar is weak.

That's how accounts get blown up.

The job in a week like this is exactly the same as in a quiet week: identify the level, define the risk, take the trade, accept whatever the market gives you. The reason the level matters isn't because it'll work every time — it's because over a hundred trades, it's the only thing keeping the maths in your favour.

A losing trade that hit your stop exactly where you placed it this week, in the middle of the most volatile week of the year, is a good trade. You executed your process. Tomorrow you do it again.

Process over outcome. Every time.

Trade safe.
— Glenn at Satdish