Known as the 'Loonie'. Canada exports a lot of oil, so crude prices matter here alongside the Fed and the Bank of Canada.
Where USD/CAD closed and how far it's moved over different timeframes.
| 20-day average | 1.40036 |
| 50-day average | 1.39593 |
| 200-day average | 1.38531 |
Price is above its 50-day average, and the 50-day is above the 200-day. That's the textbook definition of an uptrend. In the shorter term, price is above its 20-day average. We tested whether this label predicts anything: on its own, it hasn't →
USD/CAD is 98% of the way from its 12-month low to its 12-month high. The average daily range of about 60 pips is a useful guide when sizing a stop: anything much tighter is likely to get caught by normal daily noise.
Levels many traders watch. They're reference points, not predictions: price respects some and slices through others. We tested whether pivots hold more often than random levels: they don't →
| Previous high | 1.42602 |
| Previous close | 1.42357 |
| Previous low | 1.42300 |
| Pivot R1 | 1.42539 |
| Daily pivot | 1.42420 |
| Pivot S1 | 1.42237 |
| This week's open | 1.41552 |
The gap between the two central banks' rates is one of the biggest long-term drivers of any currency pair.
| Fed (USD) | 3.875% · hiking |
| BoC (CAD) | 2.25% · on hold |
| Rate gap (USD minus CAD) | +1.62% |
USD pays 1.62% more. In theory, being long USD/CAD earns that gap overnight, and the other way round pays it. What your broker actually credits or charges will be less generous. All central bank rates →
Two-year government bond yields show what markets expect central banks to do over the next couple of years. Traders compare the two countries' yields as a guide to where money is being drawn.
| USD 2-year yield | 4.78% · +0.39 in a month (1 Oct) |
| CAD 2-year yield | 3.27% · +0.26 in a month (1 Oct) |
| Gap (USD minus CAD) | +1.51 points · +0.13 in a month |
| USD/CAD over the last month | +2.89% |
■ Yield gap, USD minus CAD, in points (left scale) ■ USD/CAD (right scale). Weekly, last two years. The two lines use different scales, so how closely they appear to track depends on how the axes are drawn. The correlations below are the fair test.
Read the gap as an explanation of moves that have already happened, not a forecast of the next one. Across 264 months since 2004, the change in the USD/CAD yield gap and the pair's move had a correlation of +0.38 in the same month and -0.09 in the month after. Over the last month the gap and USD/CAD moved the same way. See the full test → · How economic data moves currencies →
Canada is a major oil exporter, so the oil price feeds into the Canadian dollar. When oil falls, CAD tends to weaken and USD/CAD tends to rise; when oil rises, USD/CAD tends to fall. Note the direction: oil and USD/CAD usually move in opposite directions. It is a lean on direction, not a signal.
Chart: WTI crude oil (a CFD that tracks the futures price), delayed. The US dollar also moves oil prices, so part of this link is really the dollar.
The link comes and goes. Quick check: over the last 20 daily candles, did USD/CAD move the opposite way to oil on at least 12 of them? If not, ignore it for now.
What the big speculators hold in CAD futures, from the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report.
| Net position (CAD futures) | −78,671 contracts |
| Change on the week | −25,461 |
| Share of open interest | -22.7% |
| Where that sits over 3 years | 54th percentile |
Large speculators (hedge funds and other big traders) as of Tue 29 Sep. Because USD/CAD is quoted with the dollar first, speculators being net short CAD means they're leaning long USD/CAD. COT reports →
Scheduled data and speeches for USD and CAD from the Satdish economic calendar.