The franc is a traditional safe haven. The Swiss National Bank has a history of stepping in when the franc gets too strong.
Where USD/CHF closed and how far it's moved over different timeframes.
| 20-day average | 0.82157 |
| 50-day average | 0.81405 |
| 200-day average | 0.79565 |
Price is above its 50-day average, and the 50-day is above the 200-day. That's the textbook definition of an uptrend. In the shorter term, price is above its 20-day average. We tested whether this label predicts anything: on its own, it hasn't →
USD/CHF is 87% of the way from its 12-month low to its 12-month high. The average daily range of about 55 pips is a useful guide when sizing a stop: anything much tighter is likely to get caught by normal daily noise.
Levels many traders watch. They're reference points, not predictions: price respects some and slices through others. We tested whether pivots hold more often than random levels: they don't →
| Previous high | 0.83819 |
| Previous close | 0.83566 |
| Previous low | 0.82948 |
| Pivot R1 | 0.83941 |
| Daily pivot | 0.83444 |
| Pivot S1 | 0.83070 |
| This week's open | 0.82974 |
The gap between the two central banks' rates is one of the biggest long-term drivers of any currency pair.
| Fed (USD) | 3.875% · hiking |
| SNB (CHF) | 0.00% · on hold |
| Rate gap (USD minus CHF) | +3.88% |
USD pays 3.88% more. In theory, being long USD/CHF earns that gap overnight, and the other way round pays it. What your broker actually credits or charges will be less generous. All central bank rates →
Two-year government bond yields show what markets expect central banks to do over the next couple of years. Traders compare the two countries' yields as a guide to where money is being drawn.
| USD 2-year yield | 4.78% · +0.39 in a month (1 Oct) |
| CHF 2-year yield | 0.32% · +0.22 in a month (1 Oct) |
| Gap (USD minus CHF) | +4.46 points · +0.17 in a month |
| USD/CHF over the last month | +1.91% |
■ Yield gap, USD minus CHF, in points (left scale) ■ USD/CHF (right scale). Weekly, last two years. The two lines use different scales, so how closely they appear to track depends on how the axes are drawn. The correlations below are the fair test.
Read the gap as an explanation of moves that have already happened, not a forecast of the next one. Across 263 months since 2004, the change in the USD/CHF yield gap and the pair's move had a correlation of +0.28 in the same month and +0.06 in the month after. Over the last month the gap and USD/CHF moved the same way. See the full test → · How economic data moves currencies →
What the big speculators hold in CHF futures, from the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report.
| Net position (CHF futures) | −24,617 contracts |
| Change on the week | +2,135 |
| Share of open interest | -18.4% |
| Where that sits over 3 years | 68th percentile |
Large speculators (hedge funds and other big traders) as of Tue 29 Sep. Because USD/CHF is quoted with the dollar first, speculators being net short CHF means they're leaning long USD/CHF. COT reports →
Scheduled data and speeches for USD and CHF from the Satdish economic calendar.