Honestly, this is one of those weeks where you could throw away every bit of technical analysis and just watch the news. Between Big Tech earnings and a war driving oil toward triple digits, the macro backdrop is doing most of the work. Here is what is happening across the four CME markets I watch most closely, and what I am watching for going into the week.
Both NQ and ES printed new all-time highs on Monday. NQ is sitting around 27,225, up nearly 50% in the past year. The move is being driven almost entirely by the AI infrastructure theme — the market has decided that whoever builds the picks and shovels for the AI gold rush wins, and it keeps bidding accordingly.
The real test comes this week. Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta all report earnings — five of the biggest NQ names in the same week. That is a lot of risk concentrated into a few days. The setups heading in are clean on the long side, but I am not chasing at all-time highs ahead of five major earnings prints. I want to see how price reacts to the numbers, not guess in front of them.
What would concern me is any guidance from these companies that AI capex is slowing down or that the demand picture is softer than expected. That is the one thing that could genuinely crack this rally. Until that happens, the trend is up and the path of least resistance stays up.
Key level on NQ: 26,600 is the first area of interest on any pullback — that was Monday’s low. Below that, 25,934 is the line I would be watching as a structural level. On the upside, there is not much technical resistance above 27,200 until you get to the extension targets around 27,475.
Gold hit an absolutely extraordinary $5,626 a few weeks ago. That is not a typo. It has since pulled back sharply to around $4,626 — a $1,000 drop in a matter of days. That sounds scary but in context, gold ran from $3,123 to $5,626 in twelve months. A correction of this size is completely normal after a move that size.
The selloff is being driven by two things. First, oil surging to near $100 is raising inflation expectations and pushing the dollar higher, which is a headwind for gold. Second, any progress on the Iran talks — however tentative — reduces the geopolitical fear premium that drove gold to those highs in the first place. When people stop panicking, they sell the safe haven.
I am not shorting gold here. The longer term trend is still firmly up and the reasons that drove it to $5,600 have not gone away. What I am watching is whether it can find support around the $4,600 area. That level lines up with a previous consolidation zone. If it breaks that and we start seeing closes below $4,500, I would expect a deeper retest down toward $4,200. But that is not my base case right now.
WTI crude has gone up seven sessions in a row. Seven. It is trading around $98-100 and Brent is near $105. This is almost entirely driven by one thing: the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed.
The US-Iran conflict — now in its ninth week — has reduced traffic through the strait to near zero. That passage normally handles around 20% of global oil flows. The IEA has warned of an unprecedented supply shock. Trump cancelled talks over the weekend saying Iran had not offered enough. Iran is saying it will not negotiate under threats. Brent is heading toward $110 and the market is trying to price in whether this gets resolved or drags on.
For traders, this is a news-driven market right now more than a technical one. Any headline suggesting talks are resuming will cause a fast flush lower. Any escalation will send it higher. The technical levels matter less when geopolitics is in the driving seat, but if I had to pick the zones — $95 is near-term support on WTI, $90 becomes important below that. On the upside, $100 is the big psychological level and $105 is the next target if that breaks convincingly.
The one thing I keep coming back to with CL right now is that this is not a supply story driven by OPEC cuts or rig counts — it is a genuine supply disruption from a real conflict. Those tend to be more violent and less predictable than the usual demand-driven moves. Size accordingly.
The big picture this week: Equities are at all-time highs and about to be tested by the most concentrated earnings week of the year. Oil is near $100 with no clear resolution to the conflict driving it. Gold is correcting after a historic run. It is not a week to be overexposed in any direction — wait for the earnings reactions and watch the Iran headlines.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always use a defined stop and manage your risk.