It has been a remarkable few weeks for NQ. From the depths of the Iran conflict selloff — which took price all the way down toward 23,000 — the market has staged one of the most aggressive recoveries in recent memory. As of today, NQ is trading around 27,178, having reclaimed every major level on the way back up.
The catalyst for the February-March selloff was the outbreak of military conflict between the US and Israel against Iran on 28 February 2026. The immediate consequence was the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil passes — sending Brent crude surging from around $70 to a peak above $119 per barrel.
That oil spike directly threatened inflation expectations, complicated the Fed’s rate path, and sent equity markets into a sharp risk-off move. NQ, already trading near all-time highs, bore the brunt of the institutional de-risking.
The Iran war created what the IEA called the greatest global energy security challenge in history. Markets priced in the worst case — and then spent the next six weeks pricing it back out again.
The recovery has been textbook in its structure. Price worked its way back through resistance levels one by one:
Each reclaim confirmed that buyers were in control and that the selloff was a reaction to headlines, not a structural breakdown of the underlying trend.
NQ is sitting within striking distance of all-time highs. President Trump’s decision this week to extend the Iran ceasefire indefinitely gave markets the green light to push higher, and the Nasdaq 100 briefly posted a new record high as a result.
The near-term picture has two clear scenarios:
The key macro inputs right now are geopolitical rather than economic. The ceasefire extension has taken immediate pressure off, but the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted — Iran has said it will not reopen it until the US blockade ends. Oil at $103/barrel is still historically elevated and keeps inflation risk on the table.
On the data side, watch Initial Jobless Claims and any Fed commentary for signals on whether the rate path has shifted in response to the energy shock.
For NQ traders specifically, the level to watch is 27,200 as both a potential pullback target and a launchpad for the next leg if it holds.
ES is broadly mirroring NQ’s structure with slightly less volatility. The S&P 500 is up 0.65% on the day as of writing. Key ES levels to track: support at 5,600 and resistance at 5,900 ahead of the next leg.
This analysis is based on price action and publicly available market data as of 24 April 2026. Always manage your risk and size positions appropriately.
It has been a remarkable few weeks for NQ. From the depths of the Iran conflict selloff — which took price all the way down toward 23,000 — the market has staged one of the most aggressive recoveries in recent memory. As of today, NQ is trading around 27,178, having reclaimed every major level on the way back up.
The catalyst for the February-March selloff was the outbreak of military conflict between the US and Israel against Iran on 28 February 2026. The immediate consequence was the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil passes — sending Brent crude surging from around $70 to a peak above $119 per barrel.
That oil spike directly threatened inflation expectations, complicated the Fed's rate path, and sent equity markets into a sharp risk-off move. NQ, already trading near all-time highs, bore the brunt of the institutional de-risking.
The Iran war created what the IEA called the greatest global energy security challenge in history. Markets priced in the worst case — and then spent the next six weeks pricing it back out again.
The recovery has been textbook in its structure. Price worked its way back through resistance levels one by one:
NQ is sitting within striking distance of all-time highs. President Trump's decision this week to extend the Iran ceasefire indefinitely gave markets the green light to push higher, and the Nasdaq 100 briefly posted a new record high as a result.
The near-term picture has two clear scenarios:
The key macro inputs right now are geopolitical rather than economic. The ceasefire extension has taken immediate pressure off, but the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted — Iran has said it will not reopen it until the US blockade ends. Oil at $103/barrel is still historically elevated and keeps inflation risk on the table.
On the data side, watch Initial Jobless Claims and any Fed commentary for signals on whether the rate path has shifted in response to the energy shock.
For NQ traders specifically, the level to watch is 27,200 as both a potential pullback target and a launchpad for the next leg if it holds.
ES is broadly mirroring NQ's structure with slightly less volatility. The S&P 500 is up 0.65% on the day as of writing. Key ES levels to track: support at 5,600 and resistance at 5,900 ahead of the next leg.
This analysis is based on price action and publicly available market data as of 24 April 2026. Always manage your risk and size positions appropriately.