Decide your cash risk first, then derive position size from the stop distance. The order matters — see Define Your Risk Before Entry.

What your edge actually produces per trade, averaged across the sample. Negative expectancy = no edge, no matter how good a recent run looks.

What a small daily edge becomes when reinvested. The math from Compound Gains made interactive.

Losses and recoveries are asymmetric. A 20% drawdown needs a 25% gain to recover; a 50% drawdown needs a 100% gain. Big drawdowns destroy the math of compounding.

The probability of hitting a chosen drawdown over the next N trades, given your edge and sizing. Run via 5,000-path Monte Carlo simulation in your browser. Sanity-check your size before you click.